Weekly Nifty 50 Technical Analysis: Market Update

 With Trump Tariffs increasing investor worries, what are the key levels to watch in the market for the current week (14th – 18th April, 2025). Read to find out.

Last week (7th – 11th April 2025), the stock markets witnessed high volatility as market participants worldwide gauged the impacts of the Tariff war between the US and China. RBI also cut interest rates last week, which improved the sentiment of Indian investors. 

Weekly Nifty 50 technical analysis for the previous week can provide some key insights into Indian stock market trends for the current week (14th – 18th April 2025). 

Market Recap: 7th – 11th April, 2025

In the previous week, the Nifty 50 index made a low of 21,743 and a high of 22,923, indicating high levels of volatility. The index opened at 5% lower at 21,758 level last Monday (a gap-down opening), followed by recovery throughout the week, and closed at the 22,828 level on Friday. 

Last week, Thursday was a holiday, and this week, 14th April 2025 (Ambedkar Jayanti) and 18th April 2025 (Good Friday) are holidays. 

Let us look at the performance of some major Indian indices in the previous week: 

Reasons for the Market Performance

Here are the reasons why market indices closed almost flat last week after opening with big gap downs: 

• US Government Tariffs: The imposition of tariffs led to the gap-down opening of stock markets last week. However, markets recovered as the US government paused tariffs with most countries for 90 days. 
• RBI Policy: Indian stock markets saw an improvement in sentiment as RBI slashed the repo rate from 6.25% to 6%. 
• FII/DII Activity: Last week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers of equities and sold ₹20,911 crores. But this was probably offset by Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) who purchased equities worth ₹21,954 crores. 

Source: Stockedge

Weekly Nifty 50 Technical Analysis

Let us look at the price action of the Nifty 50 index for previous week: 

Source: Tradingview; Nifty 50, Weekly Chart, with 100-Week EMA 

Despite the gap-down opening, the Nifty 50 index managed to close above the 100-week EMA (red line) on the weekly chart. Since the index has taken support on the 100-week EMA multiple times in the past, it acts as a major support level. Currently, the 100-week EMA depicts the 22,100 level.

Source: Tradingview; Nifty 50, Daily Chart, with 200-Day EMA, and RSI Indicator

From the daily chart of the index, we can get the following short-term cues: 

• The Nifty 50 index is trading below the 200-day EMA, which is a bearish sign. 
• The index closed on Friday at 22,828 level, which is above its immediate support zone of 22,600 – 22,700. 
• The index is making a bullish divergence from the RSI index. The index made lower lows, but at the same time, the RSI index made higher lows, indicating that the selling pressure is probably losing steam. 

There are no major Nifty 50 chart pattern formations on the charts. 

Nifty 50 Trading Strategies: Key Levels to Watch 

Here is a list of key Nifty 50 support and resistance levels that traders should keep an eye on for the current week. 

Positive Signals 

Source: Tradingview; Nifty 50, 30-Minute Chart, with 200-EMA

• The first immediate positive signal that the Nifty 50 index can provide is to move above its 200-EMA on the 30-minute chart, indicating a 22,900 level. And breakout above the resistance zone of 22,900-23,000 zone. 
• Followed by this, if the index succeeds in moving above the 200-day EMA (23,400) level on the daily chart, it will again be a positive sign for the index.

Negative Signals 

Source: Tradingview; Nifty 50, Daily-Chart, with 200-EMA

• The nifty 50 index will show weakness if it moves below its immediate support level of 22,600-22,700. 
• In such a scenario, the next support level for the index will be 22,300 – 22,400 zones. 

Last week, the India VIX (volatility index) shot up 46% to close at 20.10, indicating that investors are anticipating increased volatility in the markets hence, traders can expect big moves in either direction in the Nifty 50 index. 

Performance of Other Markets

Let us look at what different asset class performance in the previous week tells about the global and Indian stock market trends:

The pause in tariffs by the US government for 90 days helped the markets recover worldwide last week. 

Last week, the Dollar index fell 3%, and Gold increased 6.44% as the result of increasing uncertainty in the markets regarding US tariff policy. 

Key Influences for The Current Week 

The markets this week will be impacted by the following events: 

• On Tuesday, 15th April 2025, India’s inflation rate for March will be released. 
• Uncertainty around the US government’s tariff policy will also impact the markets globally. 
• This week, the sentiment of Indian investors will also be affected by the quarterly results of companies like ICICI Lombard, ICICI Prudential, IREDA, Wipro, Infosys, Tata Elxsi, etc.

Conclusion

The weekly Nifty 50 technical analysis points towards increased uncertainty in the markets. The market participants believe that volatility can persist in the coming days, as can be seen from the VIX. Any new announcements by the US government regarding trade policy can again lead to huge swings in the markets, as seen in the previous week. In such volatile conditions, traders can use strict stop losses and take smaller-than-usual positions in the market. 

Numerous online platforms offer comprehensive charts, indicators, data, and expert insights for enhanced analysis and are worth exploring.

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Kinshuk

Kinshuk is a writer at Investon. He has a passion for writing articles around various topics related to finance. He has previously written on diverse topics related to finance, ranging from technical analysis to IPOs. He has cleared level 3 of the CMT program.

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